When it comes to the conclusions one can try to imagine what could happen if the majority of the given statements were true.
The latest proposed election covered the presidential one due in Venezuela in 2024 together with the general elections in the National Assembly. As history shows, Venezuelan political developments of the recent years have been more than turbulent, and the upcoming vote in 2024 will be anything but insignificant. Here are some key things to watch for. Here are some key things to watch for:
The Maduro Question
Present president, Nicolas Maduro, as of the current constitution is also eligible to vie for presidency in 2024 with an intention to do so. But Maduro is still a largely despised figure in Venezuela as the economic situation in the country deteriorates. He was re-elected in 2018 in a vote that was considered fraudulent by many domestic and international organizations. It remains to be seen whether Maduro can pull another rabbit out of the hat and secure another electoral triumph despite the brewing anger among the citizens.
The Opposition Dilemma
Venezuela’s opposition, including Juan Guaido, rejected the 2018 election. They will have to make decisions on the option of participating in the 2024 elections, which will give credence to another victory for Maduro, or not to participate at all thereby leaving the electoral field to Maduro. Perhaps much will depend on whether the opposition has the impression that the conditions and process of elections are sufficiently fair for it.
Mediation Efforts
Currently, there are attempts worldwide and the most active one is the Mexico Talks facilitated by Norway that seeks to find a diplomatic way of solving the political crisis that is facing Venezuela. If successful, this could pave a way for the 2024 election that will be closer to a level political playing field. But more recent optimism has been tempered by the fact that the negotiations have failed to move forward, although there were some initial positive signs.
Humanitarian Crisis Overshadows Vote
The election has been called on the backdrop of a long-term economic and social crisis in Venezuela. Several millions are experiencing poverty, absence of utility infrastructure, hunger and diseases. He noted that free and fair elections may not be possible under such circumstances. Organizing a vote now that so many citizens lack social guarantees or have been displaced overseas will be a major challenge.
The military is therefore seen as crucial in the process of effecting change, either through the transfer of power to the opposition or within chavismo. The armed forces of this country have massive influence under the current regime. Their position will remain instrumental in deciding on whether conditions for such electoral change are sufficient to effect any leadership change through the ballot.
Thus, in conclusion let me highlight that starting from Maduro’s position up to the participation of the opponents, mediation processes and humanitarian emergency, the next election in Venezuela is fateful. Despite the fact that change is highly sought after by a majority, a myriad of factors that define the challenges that surrounds the contest bes Lamarckian a highly uncertain one. Free and fair elections may, therefore, need to take an entirely different approach from the state of affairs currently in place.